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Consider:

"It is better to be drunk with loss and to beat the ground, than to let the deeper things gradually escape."

- I. Compton-Burnett, letter to Francis King (1969)

"Cynical realism – it is the intelligent man’s best excuse for doing nothing in an intolerable situation."

- Aldous Huxley, "Time Must Have a Stop"







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Monday, 19 April 2004

Topic: The Culture

The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You
Be afraid, be very afraid...


I don't get religion. I'm just your basic born-and-raised-a-Congregationalist, married once to a lapsed Baptist, then to an odd woman who dragged me off to a High Episcopal church kind of guy - and now an atheist. Probably always was. No, certain I always was. I don't get it.

But I like having religion explained to me. And George Monbiot does that here, and explains how religion drives our actions as a nation. It's quite curious.

See Their beliefs are bonkers, but they are at the heart of power
US Christian fundamentalists are driving Bush's Middle East policy
George Monbiot, The Guardian (UK), Tuesday April 20, 2004

Actually this is an account of last month's Texas Republican Party conventions, particularly the one in Harris County - and that would be Houston, Texas.

Monbiot ticks off the expected - homosexuality is contrary to the truths ordained by God; "any mechanism to process, license, record, register or monitor the ownership of guns" should be repealed; income tax, inheritance tax, capital gains tax and corporation tax should be abolished; and immigrants should be deterred by electric fences.

Yep. Not much news here. Then they got to the matter of Israel.

After much compromise, keeping the radical stuff out, they came down to this: the motion they adopted stated that Israel has an undivided claim to Jerusalem and the West Bank, that Arab states should be "pressured" to absorb refugees from Palestine, and that Israel should do whatever it wishes in seeking to eliminate terrorism.

Not quite where Bush put us last week, but close.

The question Monbiot asks is why these folks in one small part of Texas think they need a position on Israel in their party position papers - why is this a local "party plank" at all?

Here's his take:
In the United States, several million people have succumbed to an extraordinary delusion. In the 19th century, two immigrant preachers cobbled together a series of unrelated passages from the Bible to create what appears to be a consistent narrative: Jesus will return to Earth when certain preconditions have been met. The first of these was the establishment of a state of Israel. The next involves Israel's occupation of the rest of its "biblical lands" (most of the Middle East), and the rebuilding of the Third Temple on the site now occupied by the Dome of the Rock and al-Aqsa mosques. The legions of the antichrist will then be deployed against Israel, and their war will lead to a final showdown in the valley of Armageddon. The Jews will either burn or convert to Christianity, and the Messiah will return to Earth.
Ah, I see. They simply want good things to happen. Jesus returns. And I hear he was a good guy - full of love and peace and understanding and all that.

But there is the darker side:
What makes the story so appealing to Christian fundamentalists is that before the big battle begins, all "true believers" (i.e. those who believe what they believe) will be lifted out of their clothes and wafted up to heaven during an event called the Rapture. Not only do the worthy get to sit at the right hand of God, but they will be able to watch, from the best seats, their political and religious opponents being devoured by boils, sores, locusts and frogs, during the seven years of Tribulation which follow.
Yep, some folks win, some folks lose.

I guess the question is whether this is harmless fantasy. This fellow explains to his British readers perhaps this all is not so harmless:
The true believers are now seeking to bring all this about. This means staging confrontations at the old temple site (in 2000, three US Christians were deported for trying to blow up the mosques there), sponsoring Jewish settlements in the occupied territories, demanding ever more US support for Israel, and seeking to provoke a final battle with the Muslim world/Axis of Evil/United Nations/ European Union/France or whoever the legions of the antichrist turn out to be.
Let's get this straight. Texas Christians traveling to Jerusalem to blow up mosques, to make sure Jesus will return as predicted? Well, that doesn't seem harmless, unless you believe in the greater good, in Jesus returning. Then it might be okay, one supposes. And Texas Christians sponsoring Jewish settlements in the middle of Palestinian lands? What, just to tick them off? No, again, for the greater good. This is part of what must happen if Jesus is to return, so one does it. But it does seem odd. The idea, of course, is to bring about the final battle that clears everything up. It seems that is a desirable goal. Heck, everyone believes "closure" is important.

Yes, these folks convinced that they will "soon" be rewarded for their efforts. Keep an eye out for the antichrist, of course, as he/she/it returning signals these are the hoped for end days. Monbiot reports these folks cannot decide just who the antichrist is, precisely - Kofi Annan, Javier Solana, Yasser Arafat "or, more plausibly, Silvio Berlusconi."

Yeah, right.

Monbiot does mention the Rapture of course - and provides a link to www.raptureready.com where you can get some idea how close we are to the end of everything: the "Rapture Index" is at 144 today and you can go see that this is pretty close to the apocalypse threshold. Getting close...

So is this just a silly fringe - just a few folks with odd beliefs? No, fully one third of Republicans believe this stuff. Monbiot runs the numbers, then cheers us up with a mention of the key people who believe this stuff.
And among them are some of the most powerful men in America. John Ashcroft, the attorney general, is a true believer, so are several prominent senators and the House majority leader, Tom DeLay. Mr DeLay (who is also the co-author of the marvellously named DeLay-Doolittle Amendment, postponing campaign finance reforms) travelled to Israel last year to tell the Knesset that "there is no middle ground, no moderate position worth taking".
This does seem to be, as Monbiot suggests, a major political constituency - representing much of the current president's core vote - in the most powerful nation on Earth, which is actively seeking to provoke a new world war.

And he points out these people see the invasion of Iraq "as a warm-up act," as Revelation (9:14-15) maintains that four angels "which are bound in the great river Euphrates" will be released "to slay the third part of men".

And there is the matter of our support of Israel in this whole construct - when Bush asked Ariel Sharon to pull his tanks out of Jenin in 2002, he received one hundred thousand angry emails from Christian fundamentalists, and never mentioned the matter again. He knows.

Here's how this plays out in the next election.
The electoral calculation, crazy as it appears, works like this. Governments stand or fall on domestic issues. For 85% of the US electorate, the Middle East is a foreign issue, and therefore of secondary interest when they enter the polling booth. For 15% of the electorate, the Middle East is not just a domestic matter, it's a personal one: if the president fails to start a conflagration there, his core voters don't get to sit at the right hand of God. Bush, in other words, stands to lose fewer votes by encouraging Israeli aggression than he stands to lose by restraining it. He would be mad to listen to these people. He would also be mad not to.
I don't like the math. But I have not accepted Jesus Christ as my personal savior. So I don't get it, and I guess I can't get it. My problem. And for all the times I've been to Texas, I don't like the place.

But Bush has accepted Jesus Christ as his personal savior. He gets it -- and if not as wrapped up in apocalyptic thought as the folks are, perhaps, he knows these folks vote. And they want a new world war, a last war, "a war to end all wars," even if Woodrow Wilson had something else in mind when he used those particular words.

Well, we're working in this final war, reading events one way, or, to be a bit more optimistic, Bush is just humoring these people to win some critical votes. I wonder which it is. And I really don't know.

Posted by Alan at 21:21 PDT | Post Comment | Permalink
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Sunday, 18 April 2004

Topic: The Economy

Marketing: Be Careful of Labels in French

Yeah, you buy your kid a backpack and suddenly you're part of the Democratic left that hates America and doesn't support our troops and thinks all the tax cuts are unfair and wants to take away everyone's gun and thinks Mel Gibson may be a bit unhinged.

How so? You purchased the backpack from this company.

See The Insider: Label this a clever attention-getter
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER, Monday, April 12, 2004
FAUX FAUX PAS?:

The bilingual labels sewn into backpacks and briefcases by Tom Bihn, a Port Angeles manufacturer, earlier this week carried more than care instructions. Appended to the French version of those instructions were the words, "Nous sommes d?sol?s que notre president soit un idiot. Nous n'avons pas vot? pour lui." In English, that means, "We are sorry our president is an idiot. We didn't vote for him."

Bihn, 43, who's president of the privately held company he started 13 years ago, said he thinks the labels were meant to refer to him.

"But if someone else wants to take it as being about some other president, they're free to do that," he said.

He doesn't know who made the unauthorized amendment and doesn't much care. No one was reprimanded or fired.

"There are bigger fish to fry," he said.

About 1,000 of the doctored labels were sewn into products this week, and the remaining supply of about 700 will be used next week.

Partly because of nationwide publicity over the label, sales of the company's products last week were double those of any prior week, Bihn said.
Maybe it was just a marketing thing.

Here's the tag.


Posted by Alan at 09:41 PDT | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 18 April 2004 09:54 PDT home

Saturday, 17 April 2004

Topic: Iraq

Semantics and Responsibility

Chas W. Freeman Jr. was our ambassador to Saudi Arabia during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, assistant secretary of Defense (1993-94) and is now president of the Middle East Policy Council. He sent a message about the Iraq war to an email discussion group of foreign affairs experts earlier this month after visiting Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The following excerpts appeared in the Washington Post this weekend.

See The Cost of 'Arrogant Daydreams'
Sunday, April 18, 2004, The Washington Post, Page B05

Here's the opening -
The view in the region, from which I have just returned, is that by destroying the Iraqi state the U.S. made it almost impossible to accomplish regime change, as opposed to regime removal, in Baghdad. No one regrets the end of Saddam's tyranny, but Iraq over the past year is viewed as an Arab zone of anarchy under foreign occupation. No one believes that what will be transferred to the Iraqi Governing Council on July 1 is "sovereignty."

Thus the mid-summer situation will be one in which an Iraqi native civilian authority with little or no legitimacy is asked to coexist with an intensely unpopular foreign occupation force over which it has no control. Few believe this dysfunctional arrangement will be up to managing an increasingly dangerous situation.

Many believe that the only thing now saving Iraq from civil war is the increasing unity of ordinary Iraqis against the occupation. This unity increasingly transcends religious schisms. It is drawing religious fanatics into alliance with secular nationalists. ("My brother and I against my cousin; my cousin and I against a stranger.") A new crop of home-grown Iraqi jihadis is, many fear, forging anti-American alliances with trans-regional and possibly global reach. (Shia with Hezbollah; Sunnis with Hamas; both, somewhat warily, with al Qaeda and its affiliates.)

The most charitable characterization of the Iraqi Governing Council (widely known as "Ahmed Chalabi and the Twenty Thieves") is that they are opportunists. Most observers believe that, once cut loose from direct association with the U.S., such men will find the temptation to engage in demagoguery against the U.S. occupation irresistible. The forecast in the region is an escalating guerrilla war against U.S. forces, coupled with the progressive collapse of the successor regime to the CPA [Coalition Provisional Authority], and conjoined with jockeying for position in the civil war to follow U.S. military withdrawal.
Ah, what does he know? Would you trust his expertise before you'd trust the supurb confidence of Bush and Cheney and Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld and the rest of the theorists who said we HAD to do this? Just asking, here....

This fellow's point?
... In the broader context, one might ponder a few possible lessons: Military triumph does not necessarily equate to political victory. Wars end only when the defeated accept defeat, not when the victor declares victory. A victory that does not produce peace can be much more costly than protracted confrontation that accomplishes deterrence. Arrogant daydreams that inspire military actions can become humiliating nightmares that produce political debacles.
Well, we don't make mistakes. Our president couldn't think of a single one he's made when asked that last week at the press conference.

I sense a disconnect.

But it may all come down to simply a matter of the words you use.

John DeBlasio is a major in the Army Reserve Civil Affairs branch and recently completed a fourteen-month deployment to the Middle East with the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq and the U.S. embassy in Jordan.

The Post also published this from him:

The War: What We're Missing
John DeBlasio, Sunday, April 18, 2004; Page B01

Here's what he's getting at:
Ever since the initial planning phases of Operation Iraqi Freedom, we Americans have struggled with the single most important question about our role in Iraq: Are we "occupiers" or "liberators"?

President Bush framed the issue both ways during his news conference last Tuesday. "We're not an imperial power, as nations such as Japan and Germany can attest. We are a liberating power," he said in his opening remarks, enunciating the administration's main theme. But in response to a question, he said of the Iraqis, "[T]hey're not happy they're occupied. I wouldn't be happy if I were occupied either."
Well, that's a tad confusing. Which is it, and is it just a matter of semantics, just silly words? DeBlasio says there is a bit more to it than that.
In October 2002, the Defense Department's general counsel ruled that, under international law, we would be responsible as an occupying force after invading Iraq. Otherwise, it would have been the job of coalition forces, as "liberators," to quickly hand over power to a legitimate government that would assume the legal responsibility for governing the country and its people. In an occupation, we would assume the legal responsibility to guarantee the security and well-being of the Iraqi people. That was also part of the premise of U.N. Resolution 1483, which lifted sanctions in Iraq and further defined our role as occupiers.
Well, since Bush took office we have made it clear that international laws are for others to follow, not us, and the UN is a bunch of pansies like those limp-wristed French and all that sort of thing.

The words don't matter.

But yes, we sort of avoid the label of "occupier" as it doesn't feel right, even if the president slips and uses the term. Hey, at least he's been pretty good at avoiding the term "crusade" for the last year or two. But we have, in avoiding the "occupier" label, kind of avoided some things - we avoided "zeroing in on the potential for humanitarian catastrophes instead of the administrative and security issues that became paramount following the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime."

Oh well, at least we don't think of ourselves as (shudder) "occupiers."

And thus we owe no one anything.

Posted by Alan at 16:49 PDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 17 April 2004 19:43 PDT home

Friday, 16 April 2004

Topic: Bush

Coming Attractions - Another Book You Might Not Want to Read
"History? We don't know. We'll all be dead."

I'm rather fond of an old Duke Ellington thing called "Come Sunday." Nice piece. Well, on Sunday Bob Woodward will appear on the CBS show "60 Minutes" to introduce his new book Plan of Attack - and that's what's coming this Sunday. The book will be available in stores the following day.

The Associated Press got its advanced copy and has a preview.

See A book on Bush's secret rush to war
Friday, April 16, 2004 - but this link is from The International Herald Tribune, Saturday, April 17, 2004 - time zones being what they are.

The big thing with Woodward's new book is easy to sum up:
President George W. Bush secretly ordered a war plan drawn up against Iraq less than two months after U.S. forces attacked Afghanistan in 2001 and was so worried the decision would cause a furor he did not tell everyone on his national security team, according to a new book on his Iraq policy.

Bush feared that if news got out about the Iraq plan as U.S. forces were fighting another conflict, people would think he was too eager for war, Bob Woodward writes in "Plan of Attack," a behind-the-scenes account of the 16 months leading to the Iraq invasion.

Bush did not address those preparations when asked about them Friday, saying, "I do know that it was Afghanistan that was on my mind and I didn't really start focusing on Iraq until later on."
Yeah, yeah. Bush had a Jones for taking over Iraq and getting the guy who plotted to assassinate his father and all that - long before anyone thought. It was a war of choice he'd had on his mind for years and years. The 9-11 attacks were an excuse. The WMD stuff was a sham. Heard it before.

This is nothing new.

Woodward does quote Bush as saying, "I knew what would happen if people thought we were developing a potential war plan for Iraq. It was such a high-stakes moment and ... it would look like that I was anxious to go to war. And I'm not anxious to go to war."

Really? Guess so.

Bush and his crew have indeed been all over the media denying accusations they were preoccupied with Iraq at the cost of paying attention to the Al Qaeda terrorist threat leading up to the 9-11 thing. Why? Because Bush's own counterterrorism chief, Richard Clarke, quit in huff and, under oath, testified the Bush crew was blithely ignoring the real threats multiplying left and right. Clarke's point? The administration's determination to invade Iraq undermined the war on terror. Wrong war. Stupid move. Doesn't address the problem. Bush is a fool being led by manipulative, nasty folks. Yeah, yeah. That's being said a lot.

Woodward book, if the Associated Press is correct, indicates the key manipulative, nasty fellow is Vice President Dick Cheney. He was the one who exploited Bush and got him intensely focused on Saddam Hussein - and this started as soon as Bush took office and continued even after the terrorist attacks theoretically made the destruction of Al Qaeda the "top priority."

But the details in the AP item are just cool:
Woodward says Bush pulled Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld aside Nov. 21, 2001 - when U.S. forces and allies were in control of about half of Afghanistan - and asked him what kind of war plan he had on Iraq. When Rumsfeld said it was outdated, Bush told him to get started on a fresh one.

Bush said Friday the subject of Iraq came up four days after the terrorist attacks when he met his national security team at Camp David to discuss a response to the assault. "I said let us focus on Afghanistan," he said, taking questions after a meeting with Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain.

Asked about the Nov. 21 meeting with Rumsfeld in a cubbyhole office adjacent to the Situation Room, Bush said only, "I can't remember exact dates that far back."

The book says Bush told Rumsfeld to keep quiet about their planning and when the defense secretary asked to bring the CIA director, George Tenet, into it at some point, the president said not to do so yet.

Even Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, was apparently not fully briefed. Woodward said Bush told her that morning he was having Rumsfeld work on Iraq but did not give details. In an interview two years later, Bush told Woodward that if the news had leaked, it would have caused "enormous international angst and domestic speculation."
A secret plan to wage a war of choice, and he doesn't even tell his own people, and doesn't want us to know, or anyone in other countries?

Could this be? Surely not.... Maybe.

It seems also that General Tommy Franks, who was in charge of the Afghan war as head of Central Command, "uttered a string of obscenities when the Pentagon told him to come up with an Iraq war plan in the midst of fighting another conflict."

No doubt.

Woodward also seems to claim Cheney was key in a curious decision on March 19, 2003, to strike Iraq before a forty-eight-hour ultimatum for Saddam Hussein to leave the country had expired. General Franks was, Woodward says, against it, saying it was unfair to move before a deadline announced to the other side. If the book is correct, Rumsfeld and Rice favored the early strike, and Secretary of State Colin Powell leaned that way. But the AP reports Woodward is claiming that Bush did not make his decision until he had cleared everyone out of the Oval Office except the vice president. "I think we ought to go for it," Cheney is quoted as saying.

Good man, Cheney. And you know what we did.

Well, we did hit hard a tad early with precision smart bombs and GPS equipped cruise missiles. Heck, I saw it on television. And, Woodward claims, Tenet did call the White House before dawn to say the Iraqi leader had been killed. Oops. Saddam wasn't there. Maybe Saddam instinctively knew when we said forty-eight hours we were sort of joshing.

CBS has more detail in a news release before the Sunday interview with Woodward. See Journalist Shares War Secrets, their "60 Minutes" teaser.

Here's one nugget:
In the interview, Woodward talked about how the administration was able to finance secret preparations for the Iraq war.

"President Bush, after a National Security Council meeting, takes Don Rumsfeld aside, collars him physically and takes him into a little cubbyhole room and closes the door and says, 'What have you got in terms of plans for Iraq?' What is the status of the war plan? I want you to get on it. I want you to keep it secret," says Woodward.

"...The end of July 2002, they need $700 million, a large amount of money for all these tasks. And the president approves it. But Congress doesn't know and it is done. They get the money from a supplemental appropriation for the Afghan War, which Congress has approved. ...Some people are gonna look at a document called the Constitution which says that no money will be drawn from the treasury unless appropriated by Congress. Congress was totally in the dark on this."
Hey, a little less humanitarian aid for the Afghans, and you get a war plan for invading and occupying Iraq - and no one is the wiser. Not quite legit, but clever.

And the Washington Post has some further nuggets.

See Bush Planned for War as Diplomacy Continued
William Hamilton, Washington Post, Friday, April 16, 2004; 3:00 PM

I like this:
Woodward describes a relationship between Cheney and Secretary of State Colin L. Powell -- never close despite years of working together -- that became so strained that Cheney and Powell are barely on speaking terms. Cheney engaged in a bitter and eventually winning struggle over Iraq with Powell, an opponent of war who believed Cheney was obsessed with trying to establish a connection between Iraq and the al Qaeda terrorist network and treated ambiguous intelligence as fact.

Powell felt Cheney and his allies -- his chief aide, Lewis "Scooter" Libby, deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz and undersecretary of defense for policy Douglas Feith and what Powell called Feith's "Gestapo" office -- had established what amounted to a separate government. The vice president, for his part, believed Powell was mainly concerned with his own popularity and told friends at a private dinner he hosted a year ago to celebrate the outcome of the war that Powell was a problem and "always had major reservations about what we were trying to do."

Before the war with Iraq, Powell bluntly told Bush that if he sent U.S. troops there "you're going to be owning this place." Powell and his deputy and closest friend, Richard L. Armitage, used to refer to what they called "the Pottery Barn rule" on Iraq -- "you break it, you own it," according to Woodward.

But, when asked personally by the president, Powell agreed to present the U.S. case against Hussein at the United Nations in February, 2003 -- a presentation described by White House communications director Dan Bartlett as "the Powell buy-in."
Well, he's a good soldier, and knows better than to try to stand up to Dick Cheney.

And this is amusing:
The president described praying as he walked outside the Oval Office after giving the order to begin combat operations against Iraq on March, 19, 2003, and the powerful role his religious belief played throughout that time.

"Going into this period, I was praying for strength to do the Lord's will. . . . I'm surely not going to justify war based upon God. Understand that. Nevertheless, in my case I pray that I be as good a messenger of His will as possible. And then, of course, I pray for personal strength and for forgiveness."
Yep, God made him do it. He was reluctant, but God made him do it and will forgive him.

Well, others might not.

The Post also reports Bush was asked by Woodward how history would judge the war. Bush's reply was classic: "History. We don't know. We'll all be dead."

Well, that could happen sooner than we'd all like, given how things are going.

If you want to know more about all this you can watch the Woodward interview Sunday, or buy the book on Monday - or just pour a stiff drink and hope for the best in the coming weeks and months.

Posted by Alan at 17:58 PDT | Post Comment | Permalink
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Thursday, 15 April 2004

Topic: For policy wonks...

Henry Kissinger's Short Definition of Diplomacy: Purposeful Ambiguity

Considering that President Bush on Wednesday endorsed Israel's plan to hold on to part of the West Bank in any final peace settlement with the Palestinians, I posted this: In-Your-Face Diplomacy - Timed Just Right to Make Things Much Worse and Force Outstanding Issues to a Head. In the item I suggested even if this was, maybe, the right thing to do, which I doubted, this was not the time to do it.

That idea seems to be the idea floating around. And the idea the shift in policy isn't good for Israel either.

See A Handshake That Doesn't Help Israel
David Ignatius, The Washington Post, Friday, April 16, 2004; Page A21

After reviewing the announcements, Ignatius gets to the nub of things.
Bush supporters would argue that he has done no more than state the obvious: Some Israeli settlements will remain in the West Bank after any "final status" agreement, and Israel will never absorb within its own borders the Palestinian refugees who fled after 1948.

But Bush ignores the fact that there can be powerful reasons not to say the obvious -- and that studied ambiguity is an important part of successful diplomacy. That's why six previous administrations had resisted taking the step Bush did Wednesday and endorsing one side's positions in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. They wanted to preserve America's ability to act as a mediator, in part because they believed that role best served the interests of America's ally, Israel.

Bush is not a man for diplomatic ambiguity. He famously prefers to see things in simpler, black-or-white terms. In particular, he tends to view the world through the narrow and sometimes distorting prism of the war on terrorism. Asked Wednesday whether Israeli settlements are an impediment to the peace process (which is the position taken by his predecessors for the past 20 years) Bush answered: "The problem is, is that there's terrorists who will kill people in order to stop the process."
Say what? The answer doesn't match the question! Has Bush finally started drinking again? The Daily Mirror has it right. Their headline after Tuesday's press conference? "The President's Brain Is Missing!" The full item is here.

In another item I commented - "Well, he's not wishy-washy. And people like that. As John Stewart likes to point out, and many other now do too, Bush is not stupid. We are. Bush depends on that."

Ignatius puts it more eloquently -
This distaste for subtleties is probably part of what many Americans like about Bush -- he's not some fancy-pants diplomat talking all the time about "nuances." But the public should understand that however satisfying Bush's plain talk may be, it can be harmful to the nation's security.
Then Ignatius gives examples:
The recent turmoil in Iraq offers two examples of how the Bush administration's rhetoric can put the United States out on an awkward limb. U.S. officials decided to demonize the troublesome Iraqi Shiite cleric, Moqtada Sadr, despite warnings from Iraqis and some U.S. officials that such "capture or kill" tactics would only enhance Sadr's standing.

Climbing out on that limb was defensible if the administration was certain it would never have to make its way back and negotiate a deal with Sadr. But it seems increasingly likely that the U.S.-led coalition may have to settle for some negotiated arrangement that allows Sadr and members of his militia to survive as the price of restoring stability within the Shiite community.

The dangers of demonization are also clear in the United States' relationship with Iran. Bush set the ultra-moral tone when he designated Iran as part of the "axis of evil" in 2002. That sort of language is fine if you think you're never going to need to strike a bargain with the evil one. But who should show up this week in Baghdad to explore a negotiated settlement of the Shiite crisis than an Iranian mediating team. Iran paid a severe price yesterday when one of its diplomats was assassinated in Baghdad.

Sources tell me the administration was prodded into accepting Iranian help by the British, who have centuries of experience in supping with devils of one sort or another.
Ignatius then makes the obvious point.
Great powers need flexibility. They should avoid taking public steps that unnecessarily limit their ability to maneuver in private. They should be cautious about marching up hills without being sure how they will get back down. They should never (or almost never) say "never." They should be especially wary of using military force, because once the battle is joined, it can't be abandoned. To the Bush administration, these may seem like sissies' rules, but they've served successful U.S. presidents well for more than two centuries.
Well, these guys aren't sissies.

But Ignatius argues the sad thing is this new shift in policy was not necessary at all. He argues the Israelis have powerful security reasons for withdrawing unilaterally from Gaza and dismantling their settlements there. We didn't have to take up the issue of the West Bank. Some things are better left unsaid - ambiguous. That allows for negotiation. It doesn't exclude one side. We ticked off a lot of folks for no reason.

As Ignatius says
Bush's disdain for decades of diplomacy is costly for the United States. At a time when America needs allies in a real war in Iraq and against Islamic terrorists, Bush's polarizing style fends them off. Saddest of all, in his eagerness to help Israel, Bush may be undermining America's greatest gift to its friend and ally: the ability to help broker a deal with the Palestinians.
Yep.

We cannot be any kind of "honest broker" now. We chose sides. That's what we do. We're not sissies.

And Tony Blair arrives today for talks. He worked long and hard to get us to commit to the "Roadmap for Peace" - if we did that he'd deliver Britain at our side in the new war to change the government in Iraq, in spite of his nation thinking it utter madness. Deal. Now Blair looks like a fool, and Bush smirks, the Arab world seethes, and Ariel Sharon grins - because he has just saved his butt in the upcoming elections in Israel.

Is everybody happy now?

Posted by Alan at 22:24 PDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Thursday, 15 April 2004 22:32 PDT home

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