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Consider:

"It is better to be drunk with loss and to beat the ground, than to let the deeper things gradually escape."

- I. Compton-Burnett, letter to Francis King (1969)

"Cynical realism – it is the intelligent man’s best excuse for doing nothing in an intolerable situation."

- Aldous Huxley, "Time Must Have a Stop"







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Wednesday, 3 November 2004

Topic: Election Notes

The day after the election... "You need to disengage your need to be right."

From someone to whom I was once married -
It's just after 7:00 am here and I'm about to leave for work. Just thought I'd check in to commiserate. I guess the people have spoken. Unfortunately most of "the people" are faith-based morons. Still, I'd feel really odd being part of an American majority. It is much more comfortable to be outraged from the fringes.
I'm settling down to being comfortable with the new state of things. I guess. My domain names - the Above Sunset things - are registered and paid for. And I suppose someone else owns the domains www.grousingfromthefringe.com and www.whatwereyouthinking.com and such variants. Minorityreport.com is taken. Being one of the few and isolated contrarians will do for now.

From another friend in upstate New York -
Excuse me... looking up from my Vonnegut book long enough to ask this disenfranchised question....

Republicans send THOUSANDS of lawyers to specific voting precincts in critical states to hover over the process and contest irregularities... And not a single shot is fired - anywhere?

And yet - ALL the exit polls throughout the day that indicated Kerry was actually winning this thing.... to the extent that the markets tumbled (Dow down several 100 points) in the final 90 minutes of trading... ALL those polls happen to be TOTALLY wrong by the end of the day when numbers are actually tallied?

Now I only grew up in the 60's when we had clear evidence that certain conspiracies - from time to time - deserved to be considered more than just theory -

But is ANYBODY out there with a national voice going to ask what ALL those lawyers were doing yesterday? Really?

Signed,
Anonymous (to protect my children's' children!)
Yeah, well, fraud or not, it's a done deal. And Phillip Raines adds -
Just the threat was enough. Did they cheat? Yeah, prove it. Say "wait a minute, this ain't right..." and get hit with the sore looser tag. Out thought in the devious arena, again.
From our friend in France.

Heather Stimmler-Hall - member number one of Ric Erickson's MetropoleParis Club - sends this along. (You can see her picture over at Ric's site of course - she's the one in the middle.) Joseph was at Harry's New York Bar near the opera. Heather was at the Paris Plant Hollywood, which I think is up on the Champs somewhere or other. The expatriates (ex-patriots?) in Paris... not happy?

Heather and I have traded emails in the past on many topics.
Hey Alan -

Spent last night (midnight six in the morning) at Planet Hollywood's election party. I expected a few cameras, but the reality when I arrived was much more over the top. There seemed to be more journalists with cameras and notebooks and bright lights than actual Americans. There were only a handful of people really dressed up for the occasion, and they were constantly hounded. The rest of us didn't even have buttons. I put on a donkey sticker from my CNN election worksheet I tore out of the New Yorker. The bar is huge, lots of small rooms. Stood around awhile, met up with a friend, got drinks, got food, got Champagne. Got tired and commandeered some chairs. There was a band, and the sound on the TV was turned up to drown them out. The volume was unbearable by 5:00 am, especially during the commercials. There were mostly Democrats, I gather from the cheering whenever a state result was announced in his favor. The few Republicans were being very quiet. I think there were even some Nader fans. A woman next to me commented on how old Larry King looked. The guy on my left was growing frustrated with CNNs "We haven't got any news yet, but we're going to keep talking anyway" schtick. I left with Ohio and Florida still unannounced, as well as my own state, Minnesota. By the time I made it into my house and turned the TV back on, Ohio was already being declared favorable to Bush. A long night. I went to sleep at 830am. This afternoon, still no word, but of course the Republicans would like to just go ahead and accept the win before everything's counted. Another proud moment in American Democracy. And this is what we want to export?

Still keeping my fingers crossed...

- Heather
Oh well. It was not to be.

By the way, check out Heather's new book:
Paris & Ile de France by Heather Stimmler-Hall
Hunter Publishing, Inc March 1, 2004
ISBN - 158843396X
And her Secrets of Paris website is really fine.

Joseph, out expatriate friend threw this is in -
I will be at Harry's Bar from about 4:00 pm EST, glued to the Reuters screen, drinking, canvassing the crowd and probably hounded again by the Agence France Presse folks trying to get point of view from a "real American". I shall have to once again tell them that I don't know any.

For anyone wishing a report from the ground on this side, general commiseration or condolences, as the case may be, I will happily accept your call on [number kept private].

Cheers, and may someone win!
Someone did.

Ric Erickson adds this - grounding us back to real life -
Bravo Heather!

Last night, Tuesday, 2 November, was at a dinner in a place with no TV. We were told Oleg from Kiev had left a black and white TV in a closet, but nobody made a move to get it. Alan Ginzberg's 'America' was read aloud.

This morning radio France Info was no longer focusing its reports on the United States. Weather, sports, the Paris Bourse, and finally a 90-second bulletin. Grand elector scores and hung up in Ohio. Then on to the 'life of plants.'

Had to go out to the deepest countryside today to pick something up from the server-lady. She has satellite and cable, maybe 30 channels. Which she had watched until early morning; and was not in a good mood at noon.

What should we do? Immediately buy all the apartments we can, so we can sell them to refugees?

Will they sing, 'Don't cry for me, America?'

Today's papers too soon for Paris comment.
But the comments came.

Joseph, after his vigil at Harry's -
Yes, it does seem like a pretty dark day. But I can't really complain too much as none of it affects me very directly.

Before the whining begins in earnest, let me share with you two thoughts that have pre-occupied me in the last week, and I'll explain them later when I'm no longer hung-over and exhausted.

1) This outcome proves superior to a Kerry win. Though I voted for Kerry, I have been somewhat hoping for a Bush win.

2) Dems need to understand why it is that they are so personally offended
by Bush. It has little to do with his policies.

3) Dems did not lose the election because all the votes were not counted, or because Republican operatives pulled dirty tricks. These are the political realities we must face. This stuff will always be with us. Therefore, the solution doesn't lie in re-counts or lawsuits. Kerry, like Gore before him, lost to a stuffed-shirt all on his own, fair and square. If you can't beat someone with this record, there is something seriously wrong with your message. Deal with it.

4) The Republican leadership knows something that the Democratic leadership does not: The majority of Americans do not support their policies. This realization affords them a tremendous advantage. The sooner the Democrats learn this lesson, the sooner they can shape public opinion to their benefit.

Let me share with you the best piece of advice anyone has ever given to me: "You need to disengage your need to be right."
Phillips Raines down Atlanta way, adds this -
Watch the talking heads last night I felt like I had eaten some bad shellfish. My oldest son, Will (18) voted for the first time yesterday and stayed up to watch me cuss at the TV "See what it's like being a leftist in the south, pointless except for being a goaded punching bag for some god and guns devotee." But I'm not moving to France because I'm so disgusted with the majority right wing slant here. It crosses my mind like it does every other friend who has called me this morning to cry in the democrat beer. The percentages look the same in most states as they have the whole election. 51 Bush, 48 Kerry. The skins capture the flag. But I will still sell my hotdogs on this street, even though a goomba will expect 30 dollars a day protection money, even if it rained. Can't fight it. I hope Bush won't fuck things up as bad as he did the first term, but I'm sure the deficit will get higher and that the United States of Europe will surpass us as the supreme economic power, especially since so much of our debt is owed to them. There is no reason for EU to have any mercy.

EU "You must pay the rent."
US "But we can't pay the rent."
EU "Should have thought of that before you took Iraq on as your main welfare project."

As Alan says..."Oh well."
Do I say that?

And Vince in upstate New York also comments to Joseph in Paris -
Joe your thoughts here are grist for deep diving, in fact profound, but as I take my own loop through your implied logic - and I'm looking forward to your expanded thoughts on just that exercise, I'm struck not only with the impact of your closing thought (never stated more eloquently), but struck especially by the triple-entendre of pure irony that plays here...

1) ... for what proportion of red state votes were grounded in just the opposite expression of self righteousness?, and
2) ... if W. had adhered to your wisdom would his face have ever graced our national stage?, and
3) ... if not for your counsel's polar opposite would the incumbent party even have had a platform on which to stand yesterday!

"Shoot me off my own ho'ss?" cried the Marlboro cowboy.

"Not while I'm still breathin' (and smokin' these things!) Dang varmits!"
Dick, nearby in upstate New York adds -
"....need to be right......?" This all sounds like a Red Sox fan in 1919 (or whatever) saying "wait `til next year." None of them lived long enough for "next year."

It is not so much a need to be right as it is a realization that we have just reelected the worst president of my lifetime. (I'm 58.) Even when he did not win the popular vote in 2000 he made absolutely no minimal gesture toward "healing" or even considering the Democrats as anything but a pain in the ass to be snubbed and ignored. He has said, "Fuck the world" and shows no indication moderating that. He has indicated that Scalia (short form of Machiavelli) is his standard for appointing probably two - maybe four - Supreme Court justices. The environment is up for sale with energy companies having first bid and environmentalists not making the list at all. The national debt is going right off the chart as the big bucks people will probably get another tax cut.

Need to be right? I don't think so. I just am not happy having Nero back in office.
And Vince responds -
Funny you should conclude that way - the name Nero crossed my lips just this morning... as I thought - Jeez maybe New Zealand would be a nice place to move the family... or retire!

Which is my own way I guess of "disengaging my need to be right..." Same category as my Vonnegut novel - only safer!

One worst-case Nero scenario that may emerge here... is that we become ever more the target... in the infinite loop of militant bloodletting, merely because of the way Cheney and friends provoke with every breath!

You want to know why Palestinians & Israelis refuse any path but violence? Because the Bushes in particular have been the latest ideal role models for best practices in middle east conflict resolution! Why wouldn't I emulate the "winners!"
But Phillip in Atlanta adds this -
"You need to disengage your need to be right."

Good advice whether you got it from a respected professor or a sailor with chronic B.O. Even my smartest friends fall into the trap of conceit centered on their opinion. It blasts a great sucking sound to me too. It is fueled by the phantom of bewildered dismay at how an opposing view could erupt from deluded insight based on emotion or lack of facts. An easy example is that not accepting Jesus as your personal savior will lead to an eternity in hell for your immortal soul. That just can't be right, the Baptist just can't be right. I recall so many emails from Alan where he had dinner conversations with republicans who thought we should defeat Iraq and afterwards march into Syria then Iran. It would be followed up with articles and analysis of astonished disbelief, almost hurt feelings that friends were detached from the trouble such actions would cause. No desire to gloat if these bad ides were carried through and then made things much, much worse. Only a hope that cooler heads prevail.

In Yana Yoga, an ancient study that plays with the stretch of thought, there is a distinction made between knowledge and belief. If you know something you don't get torqued out of shape if someone disagrees with you, but if you just believe something and encounter disagreement, a flood of emotions kick in, dragging behind it vanity and an inability to disengage a need to be right. Such are the perils thought. Disengaging from this need does in fact sooth.

After voting yesterday morning I had a vision of the republican party grabbing their heart like Obi Wan Kanobe feeling a great disturbance in the force as Kerry won by a slight margin state after state raising the metaphorical moan like the citizens of Algernon. The anticipated collective anguish sent a warm glow through out me and I felt the seductive opiate of prescient vanity. Damn it felt good. But I was wrong. Oh well, what's next? Maybe I'll return to the axiom of my twenties of not really caring about politics, being more interested in my sax, centering my pitch, fattening my tone. If he doesn't draft my boys then it's not really my problem.

Joseph, please spread the word that half of Americans think this administration sucks, and give us the benefit of the doubt if we visit overseas. That's a useful activism I'd appreciate.

































Emma, the Australian in Paris, to that image - "Thanks it brought a smile to my face. I'm suffering depression and I'm not even American!"

Dan in Cincinnati, to Joseph, his old friend in Paris, weighs in from the other side -
"You need to disengage your need to be right."

I have always admired your ability to come up with good quote. Ever since we met way back in high school, I have always quoted you. Actually, plagiarized is a better word. Anyway, I know we shared some thoughts off-list so no one will fully understand what I am talking about but I share it with everyone anyway.

Some points:

The margins by which Bush won was what I was referring to when I said my gut tells me Bush wins by a "large" enough margin to keep the lawyers at bay.

I am not sure the Democrats will learn anything from this loss any time soon. Fear of Christians, hatred of Bush, among other things has clouded their thinking.

As far as Ohio goes... The press late last night was pointing out all the provisional ballots that had yet to be counted. They speculated (hoped, really) that if numbers were close enough the provisional ballots would put Kerry over the top. What they either missed or didn't say is that one of the biggest groups that signed up new voters was those "dumb" Christians. You see, we here in Ohio were voting on a same-sex marriage amendment (which was soundly defeated, bi-partisan-like) so the churches started signing up voters. Had some activist judges and others on the left not stirred that pot earlier in the year, we may not have had that issue on the ballot. Could be that the Christians who registered to vote solely for that issue wouldn't have been a factor and Kerry wins Ohio. The one big lesson the Democrats could learn from this is that the country in not as liberal as they think.

Keep in my mind I have had no sleep in the last 36 hours so I hope I am making sense. Finally, I am not a gloater but I have some quotes to comfort those of who need it. Please take these in the spirit intended.

"In times like these it helps to recall that there has always been times like these" - Paul Harvey, I think.

"Think of all the beauty still left around you and be happy" - Anne Frank
Okay.

And in the web sphere?

This -
Reading the various commentary and chatting with a few people I've come to a couple of realizations which I think we all need to come to terms with. First, as Eric Alterman puts it, there are more of "them" than "us" right now. The people who voted George Bush and the Republicans into office this year didn't do so because they were conned by a right wing asshole posing as a compassionate centrist. They did so precisely because he is a right wing asshole. Yes, the modern Republican party consists of nasty bigots and liars and the media rarely bothers to point out just how nasty they are (all the talking heads talking about the role of "moral values" in the election know that what that really means is "fag hating," but they won't say it). But, don't be fooled - people know what they voted for.

... Democrats and liberals have spent too many years running away from the Right's caricature of what it means to be a liberal that they've managed to obliterate from the public consciousness any coherent concrete narrative. It isn't as many seem to think about precisely where on the Left/Right spectrum a candidate or the Party chooses to position itself. I'm not arguing that Democrats need to be "more liberal" or "less liberal" or anything like that it all. But, they have to be something other than "not Republicans."
And this -
I hate to say this, but I hope liberals quit whining about George Bush's "mandate." It may be a narrow one, but of course he won a mandate. We've all been saying for months now that this election was a referendum on the incumbent, and the incumbent won the electoral college, won the popular vote by nearly 4 million votes, picked up four Senate seats, tossed out the Democratic leader in the Senate, and picked up a few more House seats for good measure. If the results had gone the other way, we'd be talking about them as a clear repudiation of Bush and everything he stood for.

Needless to say, this doesn't mean we should just mope around and let the Republican Party run the country unopposed. At the same time, though, it doesn't help to be in denial: the fact is that Bush did win a convincing victory, and he did it because more Americans agreed with his vision for the country than agreed with ours. Our job now is to try to change that, not to pretend that it never happened.
And this -
A MANDATE FOR CULTURE WAR

That's Bill Bennett's conclusion. He won't be the only one. What we're seeing, I think, is a huge fundamentalist Christian revival in this country, a religious movement that is now explicitly political as well. It is unsurprising, of course, given the uncertainty of today's world, the devastating attacks on our country, and the emergence of so many more liberal cultures in urban America. And it is completely legitimate in this country for such views to be represented in public policy, however much I disagree with them. But the intensity of the passion, and the inherently totalist nature of religiously motivated politics means deep social conflict if we are not careful. Our safety valve must be federalism. We have to live and let live. As blue states become more secular, and red states become less so, the only alternative to a national religious war is to allow different states to pursue different options. That goes for things like decriminalization of marijuana, abortion rights, stem cell research and marriage rights. Forcing California and Mississippi into one model is a recipe for disaster. Federalism is now more important than ever. I just hope that Republican federalists understand this. I fear they don't.
And on it goes.

There will be more.

Posted by Alan at 23:32 PST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 6 November 2004 14:01 PST home

Monday, 1 November 2004

Topic: Corrections Noted

Listen up! There IS no War on Terror! I repeat: There IS no War on Terror! None! We have all been conned!

A little bit more on that Osama videotape from Friday, discussed in Just Above Sunset on the weekend here.

A bit on the codependency thing here -
The two men turn out to be well-matched. Bin Laden pisses people off and drives them into the arms of Bush. Bush pisses people off and drives them into the arms of Bin Laden. Bush keeps Bin Laden in business; Bin Laden keeps Bush in office... Bin Laden has shown up on the eve of our election, full of the same impenetrable self-assurance Pat Robertson noticed in Bush.
The makes sense to me.

And here in the Los Angeles Times we find Osama Bin Laden really longs to be Arafat, of course -
In fact, what has caught the attention of the U.S. intelligence community is the strangely conciliatory nature of bin Laden's new message, according to some government officials and outside experts... These experts say bin Laden appears to be intensifying his campaign to "re-brand" himself in the minds of Muslims worldwide, and become known more as a political voice than a global terrorist... The U.S. official said "a political spinoff (of al-Qaida) is one of the greatest fears" of U.S. counter-terrorism authorities, in which bin Laden and the terror network follow the path of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Hezbollah and members of the Irish Republican Army. Over the years, those groups evolved from having an emphasis on committing terrorism into broader organizations with influential, widely accepted political wings.
Ah, he becomes legitimate!

Then this on that videotape -
"We want people to think 'terrorism' for the last four days," said a Bush-Cheney campaign official. "And anything that raises the issue in people's minds is good for us."... A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."... He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.
A gift?

I suspect the tape has no net effect on the election. Things I've come across but didn't capture? Walter Cronkite saying something like we captured Osama long ago and this tape was produced by Karl Rove and the Republican National Committee. No, he couldn't have said that. And there is lots of net chatter that we have had Osama for months and we'll kill him tomorrow - Monday - as the final election surprise that puts Bush over the top. And a variant, we've had him for months and we forced him to make this tape or we'd kill him. And on and on....

Well, Monday is over and Osama Bin Laden is still out there... somewhere.

Rick, The News Guy in Atlanta, sat there really is no War on Terror -
Okay, I'm confused and need some help. Is it just me, or has anyone else in this country noticed that there is no "War on Terror"?

Polls show Americans trust Bush more than Kerry on the issue of protecting the country from terrorism. Really! (They obviously ignore the fact that Kerry has actually killed someone face-to-face, while the closest Bush got to doing that was when he giggled it up as some born-again Christian woman was on the war to one of his Texas execution chambers.)

But other than that, when you think about it, what has Bush done in this so-called "War on Terror"?

He attacked Afghanistan? Big deal! Hell, if 9/11 had happened on Calvin Coolidge's watch, he'd have invaded Afghanistan during a break in one of his famous afternoon naps!

Bush invaded Iraq? Okay, if you insist on considering Iraq part of the "War on Terror," then you must admit to it being one hugely-botched battle at best, with terrorists now operating out of that country and doing things Saddam Hussein would never have allowed them to do. But in fact, Iraq, as has now been demonstrated, originally had nothing to do with the war on terror anyway, although probably now it does. Which leaves us with Afghanistan, where the Taliban still lives, and as Osama bin Laden possibly does, too.

(Okay, looking on the bright side, isn't it nice that Saddam was removed from power? Yes, but considering the subsequent blowback, celebrating Saddam's being gone is like calling the glass ten-percent full instead of ninety-percent empty. One can understand some Iraqis being happy about this, but it has certainly /not/ made the world safer.)

Is this war just a metaphor, like the "War on Poverty"? Apparently Bush doesn't think so, charging that anyone (i.e., Kerry) who thinks this war is just a metaphor is not fit to be president. (Lots of Bush's fellow Republicans have called it a metaphor, but that's okay, they're not candidates for the job.)

Can this war be won? Apparently Bush doesn't think it can be, not in the classic sense (although he had to later clarify that argument by inserting some flip-floppy ambiguity into it.)

Is it a law-enforcement matter? Bush says no, that's just "September 10th thinking," the sort of thing his opponent is guilty of. (You know, it seems this business of hunting down this war is like Twenty Questions, with no end in sight.)

But in truth, if it's not a metaphor; and it can't really be won in the usual sense; and it's not a law-enforcement thing; and if even Tommy Franks has told people Afghanistan is really more of a man-hunt than a war -- and as has been pointed out before, shortly after our invading Afghanistan, there were more American soldiers in Salt Lake City, protecting the Winter Olympics, than there were fighting our so-called war in Afghanistan -- then where is this war everyone's talking about?

Even Bush and his people admit that this "war" has produced absolutely no actual "war prisoners" as such that fall under Geneva Convention protections. Shouldn't that alone tell us something?

Look, I have ideas of war in my head. Take WWII; now that was a proper war! So was WWI and the Civil War and the War of 1812 and the War for Independence! Real wars you can see and smell, and run to join up with, or maybe run away from. Korea and Vietnam were called "police actions," but whatever you called them, they walked and talked like wars to me.

So if anyone tries to tell you that this is a war unlike others and it isn't between nations and that it doesn't take place in any one chunk of geography, but is in fact taking place in the slums of Hamburg and the jungles of Indonesia, and hundreds of other secret places where these vermin try to hide, and that it won't end with someone signing a peace treaty, and may not /ever/ end in the conventional sense, and is not fought only by soldiers with guns but also by prosecutors with subpoenas ... you see where this is going?

Tell them what they're describing is only "metaphorically" a war, but is really mostly just a law-enforcement issue that, like crime itself, will probably never end -- and certainly not the sort of thing to allow a president to lay claim to being a "wartime president". I'm sure future historians will someday compare the mass hysteria rampant in early 21st century America, as it fought its imaginary war, to the Salem witch burnings and communist-hunts during the McCarthy era.

It seems like such a classic case of emperor-wearing-no-clothes, and it seems that nobody wants to bring this up, so let me do it now:

I need everyone's undivided attention! Listen up! There IS no War on Terror!

I repeat: There IS no War on Terror! None! We have all been conned!

Anyone? Please feel free to convince me otherwise.
Readers?

Vince in upstate New York comments -
What? That we have not been conned?

Pete Townsend just has to eat his own words... can't escape even in the UK!

"Won't get fooled again?"

Ah to be young again & writing anthems...

P.S. No one ever called us on budgeting federal dollars in the name of our domestic labels of "War on..." - so why should they question this mirage of tax dollar diversions.? All we need is for Chaney to come up with a new acronym for W-I-N. Any takers there?
Nope. Just go vote.

Posted by Alan at 20:31 PST | Post Comment | Permalink
home


Topic: Election Notes

I guess there will be an election tomorrow... Bush as Robespierre?

Digby on Kerry -
He's not a crook, he's not lazy, he's not stupid. He's very accomplished, he's highly experienced and he's got good instincts. But, I'm convinced that the most important character traits in a successful President at this point in history are resiliance and cunning; even if we win the election, politics are going to remain a bloodsport. The Republicans aren't going to fade away. This battle is ongoing and we must have someone who can withstand a punch and come back. It is going to be very, very difficult to govern. I think Kerry is running not because he's "electable," but because he's one of the few Democrats of his generation who has spent his life preparing to govern in the face of a radical political opposition. The job is not for the fainthearted...
Yeah, who would want that job?

Juan Cole (University of Michigan Middle East expert) does the French thing -
The decision between Bush and Kerry will shape the world Americans live in during the next four years. Even though Bush has been called the "CEO President," that isn't how he has behaved. Bush has overthrown two governments and announced the imminent demise of several others. Bush is a revolutionary in Asia, a Robespierre. At least one of Bush's revolutions is now mired in its Terror phase. What a real CEO thinks about Bush is obvious from the Paul O'Neill / Ron Suskind memoir of life on the Bush cabinet. Kerry in contrast is a statesman committed to navigating the status quo without producing unnecessary turbulence.

Since the United States is essentially a vast island, three thousand miles across and two thousand miles deep, its inhabitants often begin to think that they are unconnected to the wider world. My friend John Walbridge suggested to me that most Americans may not believe the rest of the world exists, as opposed to being something that one occassionally sees on television.

September 11 was a reminder that even the defenses of an island can be breached. It was also a signal that the old foreign policy prerogatives of the United States government, to intervene as it liked to impose its will on other regions, was no longer cost-free. In a world of increasingly powerful technology, each individual is potentially much more powerful, and this was a development that diabolical engineers in al-Qaeda saw clearly and figured out how to use.

Al-Qaeda has ambitions beyond just blowing a few things up, no matter how horribly. It is now a cadre organization, that is, it consists of a few thousand committed fanatics. But it wants to be a political party. That is the significance of Bin Laden's most recent videotape. He is posing as a champion of "freedom" in the Muslim world (mainly freedom from US hegemony, but he maintains also freedom from authoritarian and corrupt regimes in the region backed by the US). Bin Laden is making a play not just to be a cult leader but to succeed to the position of Gamal Abdul Nasser as an anti-imperialist icon in the region. Ultimately al-Qaeda would like to get control of entire states, and merge them into an Islamic superstate, a new caliphate. It is a crackpot idea that will fail, but many crackpot ideas that fail (e.g. the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia) do a great deal of damage along the way.

George W. Bush has never been able to see clearly the nature of this threat...
Ah, maybe so, but voters think otherwise.

And he goes on -
The Bush administration is full of revolutionaries. They are shaking up the world by military force. They are playing a role familiar in modern history, pioneered by Napoleon Bonaparte, of using overwhelming military superiority to establish new forms of hegemony by appealing to desires for change among neighboring publics. Bonaparte promised the Italians liberty on the French model, but in fact reduced the Italians to a series of French puppet regimes and then he looted the country. So far Bush's Iraq looks increasingly like Bonaparte's Italy in these regards.

... Kerry is not a revolutionary, unlike Bush. He recognizes that al-Qaeda is a real threat and needs to be the main focus of US security thinking. Kerry will capture or kill Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri because he will put the resources into that endeavor that Bush instead wasted in Iraq.

Kerry is worried about Iran's nuclear ambitions, but is highly unlikely to resort to military force or connive at a coup in Tehran. He will use diplomatic methods and more subtle military pressure.

Kerry will rebuild the alliance with Europe, which is crucial for fighting al-Qaeda. He will attempt to improve the US image in the Muslim world, which Bush has completely shattered. His approach to China will be measured.

So the choices are clear. Those who want a revolutionary who will risk further wars and instability, should vote for Bush. Those who want someone who will use diplomacy to manage the status quo and roll back asymmetrical threats should vote for Kerry.
Ah, but Kerry is tall and Bush is short. Bonaparte indeed.

Martin Kettle does the US history thing -

The fervour behind the push to put 'America first'
Don't underestimate the centrality of the old belief in manifest destiny
Martin Kettle, The Guardian (UK), Tuesday November 2, 2004

This sounds awfully familiar -
We are all Americans now, announced that now famous Le Monde headline after September 11 2001. Back then, more than three years ago, it felt true. But we all know the feeling is not as strong now; and we also sense that it is not George Bush alone who has made it so. Indeed, irrespective of how Americans vote over the next 24 hours, today may even be the day when the rest of us should begin to stop being Americans at all.

The Bush administration's policy of "America first" is neither some personal obsession on Bush's part nor a spasm in response to the shock of September 11. It is part of a much older, wider and very specifically American conservative sense of exceptionalism whose militancy and energy are still greatly underestimated outside America. If Bush is re-elected today, that sense will deepen and strengthen further. But even if Bush loses, this same American exceptionalism is now so strong that it will aggressively constrain any other presidency, even one that seeks to reject the approach, as Bill Clinton's did and John Kerry's would do.

The rejection of international institutions and stable alliances is a signature aspect of this militant new exceptionalism. It is inconceivable that it will be significantly reined in during a second Bush term. From the point of view of the administration and the bulk of its Republican supporters, however, this unilateralism is merely one aspect of a distinctive worldview which has little parallel in any other liberal democracy, and which might best be seen as a modern reincarnation of the old American preoccupation with "manifest destiny".
Yeah, we all remember that, unless we napped through ninth grade US History.

But now it's serious -
...Bush's apparent acceptance of the view that he may be doing God's work in the White House has been much noted in this country as the campaign has wound through the autumn. But this is not some idiosyncratic hubris on the president's part. It is shared by millions of American conservative evangelical protestants, many of whom believe, along with the attorney-general John Ashcroft, that the very existence of the United States is proof of a divine purpose. In that context, the idea that America should reject ties with necessarily less blessed nations becomes existential, an exceptionalism of another order altogether.

Most Americans don't think in these terms, of course. Yet sufficiently large numbers of them do for their conviction to be massively important, especially when they are so determined and have such powerful armed forces. If you believe that God has a higher purpose for your work, then you bring a special fervour to everything that you do, whether it is re-electing the president, challenging his opponent's credentials, stopping his voters from voting, challenging their votes or - if by some cruel fate the opponent wins the election - preventing him from governing.
Ah yes, God's work is never done. It seems He needs His foot soldiers.

Ah well, if you click on the link you sill discover the rest is an appeal to Tony Blair to get a little more European in his outlook.

And it concludes with this:
It is the centrality to American public life of this militant conservatism, more than any other single factor, which makes current British policy towards the United States so difficult to pursue productively or honourably and which has brought this country's relationship with the US to its present ebb. Tony Blair's policy has been entirely consistent - to stick fast to America under all circumstances. It will clearly remain his policy whether Bush wins or Kerry.

But it shouldn't. It would be a more defensible policy if American parties were like European parties - but they are not, with the consequence that the policy becomes a hostage to the Republican right when the Republicans are in power and is constrained by them when the Democrats are in the White House. The invasion of Iraq, in this context, is more an example of British marginality than a good or a bad policy in itself. Unless British policy adapts and changes to these realities, it is doomed to be replayed over Iran or Cuba or whatever other adventure becomes the conservative right's next test of God's higher purpose.
Kettle suggests Blair should be thinking in "a more informed way about the foreignness of America." And that means...
... growing up and growing away process that need not and most certainly should not mean becoming anti-American. But unless and until we do it, unless we see that our centre of gravity in the 21st century should be as part of an alliance of liberal European states, we are fated to fall between America and Europe, not to be a bridge between them. It is a challenge to Blair, to whoever succeeds him, and to our very sense of ourselves.
The Brits don't want to become Americans? But everyone wants to be like us!

Posted by Alan at 19:53 PST | Post Comment | Permalink
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Sunday, 31 October 2004

Topic: Photos

New food for thought!

The parent site of this web log Just Above Sunset was posted today. This would be Volume 2, Number 43 for Sunday, October 31, 2004

This week in the virtual magazine? The annual Halloween issue, of course. Since I have been without television or my high-speed cable modem since the 25th this week you will hear many other voices. Of course there's a bit on the new Bin Laden videotape, and a whole lot on the pledge one must now recite a Bush rallies in unison with the other true believers. In the "Breaking News" item friends in Paris, Atlanta, Canada and upstate New York try to make sense of the week's events - and that gets pretty lively. Our expatriate friend in Paris, Joseph, kicks off a lively discussion about class warfare, and takes some digs at Southern California. And the Week in Review hits the odder stories out there.

Bob Patterson? Read his endorsement of George Bush for president. You decide if he's serious. And in the guise of the Book Wrangler he visits the Borders at Hollywood and Vine and notes some good reading ahead.

Features? Much on the flurry of books in France now that try to figure out just what we're doing here in the United States, with comments from Ric in Paris and Vince in upstate New York, who worked with one of the key French cultural critics. And as a Halloween bonus - notes on the Salon du Chocolat in Paris we all missed. If you have to attend a trade show, attend that one.

Local Hollywood photography is devoted to Halloween - with a cute kid in a pumpkin patch, then Hollywood Boulevard all strange, or stranger than usual - and the pithy quotes this week are about who believes in what, from Robert Burns to Isaac Asimov to William S. Burroughs.

So enjoy.

Current Events ________

The Short Snark: The New Bin Laden Videotape

The Pledge: The Cult of Personality Returns (atavistic instincts are fascinating)

Breaking News: October surprises as seen from Paris, Atlanta, the London in Canada and upstate New York...

Class Warfare: We're not in Kansas any more? Oh yes we are!

Catching-Up: The Week of Quite Odd Events in Review

Bob Patterson ________

WLJ Weekly: The World's Laziest Journalist - He's makin' a list and checkin' it twice. (Christmas comes early for the Republicans)
Book Wrangler: Bookstores always remind the columnist of "Bring Cash Alley" in Saigon

Features ________

The Francophile Corner: How we are seen by the French, who we so love to hate...

Halloween Extra: Notes on chocolate...

Photography: Halloween

Quotes: Useful Pithy Observations... Just who believes in what?

And one of the photos...



Posted by Alan at 21:32 PDT | Post Comment | Permalink
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Saturday, 30 October 2004

Topic: Photos

Offline for another week or more...

When I got home from work on October 25, I discovered my cable was out. No television - no big loss. But no cable modem connection to the internet. I am writing this to you all from an internet caf? on Sunset, and they are charging me many dollars an hour to connect.

Comcast, my cable company, cannot work the issue when I am not home - and things are hot at work so I just cannot stay home. Well, Comcast did come here and try to figure out why all the lines into my Hollywood apartment are all quite dead - on Saturday afternoon, October 30.

They cannot fix the connection at all. There is a break in the service two floors below me. They need access to that unit and the manager is nowhere to be found. I will need to reschedule next weekend, or sometime when the manager is around to let them into that unit, and when I am here. The coordination is a bother and this could take weeks.

Just Above Sunset - the weekly virtual magazine - will take, using dial up, maybe two or three hours a page to load. Photos are impossible as they time out during load - the line disconnects even with special settings. I may build Just Above Sunset tomorrow from the internet caf? at ten to twelve dollars a half-hour for access, but at least I can work rather fast. I just have to put all the text and photos on floppy and lug them down there. That's where you will find this week's commentary.

No television for two or more weeks? Whatever. I missed the World Series. No big deal.

Sunday late, if I'm done in time, I will go to Good Guys and buy a satellite dish and arrange for installation so I get television back, and then I will contact SBC and buy DSL - that's high speed internet over the telephone lines. What's two hundred more a month? I can maybe get out of my long-term contract with Comcast if they agree they cannot offer me service.

Bah. Commentary and email will be scant.

This means no blogging, and the next issue of Just Above Sunset is iffy.

Needless to say, I will not be cruising the net and doing commentary. Such is life.

Oh yes, readers with too much time on their hands can, of course, contact Comcast and tell them what a sorry service company they are, but I suspect they won't care much.

But here's a Halloween picture - my nephew Neal and his wife Michelle send this along - that's their Nicholas born last December...



Posted by Alan at 16:38 PDT | Post Comment | Permalink
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