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Consider:

"It is better to be drunk with loss and to beat the ground, than to let the deeper things gradually escape."

- I. Compton-Burnett, letter to Francis King (1969)

"Cynical realism – it is the intelligent man’s best excuse for doing nothing in an intolerable situation."

- Aldous Huxley, "Time Must Have a Stop"







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Saturday, 27 March 2004

Topic: Political Theory

The uses of history... George Bush as Oliver Cromwell? That is a stretch.

From a senior fellow with the Davenport Institute for Public Policy at Pepperdine University, just up the coast from where I'm sitting. What's his take on the state of American politics today? What we're facing is really Charles I and his Cavaliers versus Oliver Cromwell his Roundheads. Say what?

See Red, Blue and... So 17th Century?
Joel Kotkin, The Washington Post, Sunday, March 28, 2004; Page B01

Here's the opening:

Ideological and theological divisions running deep. Opposing factions so far apart they no longer seem to respect one another. A breakdown in communication. The elites of each side, neither able to appeal to the other, poised like opposing armies ready to do battle.

America 2004? Actually, no. This was the lamentable state of affairs in mid-17th century England, as it teetered on the brink of civil war. But there certainly is something disturbingly familiar about this description of a body politic dividing into two unbreachable camps.

Like England under Charles I, when the Cavaliers -- the royalist supporters of the king -- and the Roundheads -- Puritan upstarts led by Oliver Cromwell -- went at it for seven years of war, the United States today is becoming two nations. This is not merely the age-old split between income groups, as Sen. John Edwards kept suggesting in his unsuccessful campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, but something even more fundamental -- a struggle between contrasting and utterly incompatible worldviews.
Is this a fair comparison?

Well, Kotkin says it's not exact but close enough.

Some describe the conflict as one between the "red" and the "blue" states, the right and the left, conservatives and liberals. But even though no one is about to behead our ruler and overthrow the government, as Cromwell's forces did when they captured Parliament in 1649, I find the parallel of the Cavaliers and the Roundheads to be the most apt. They grew to hate each other so much that they could no longer accommodate a common national vision. "I have heard foul language and desperate quarrelings even between old and entire friends," wrote one Englishman on the eve of conflict. Much the same could be said of us today.
Ah, that's his argument. We are so split on fundamental issues, or moral views, that we cannot, ever, reconcile them.

And then this fellow runs his metaphor. He says America's Roundheads (the puritans) cluster in the South, the Plains and various parts of the West, while the Cavaliers inhabit the coasts, particularly the large metropolitan centers of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest. And "each side has its own views, confirmed by its favored media. Fox TV, most of talk radio, the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Sean Hannity speak for the Roundheads, supporting President Bush and America's global mission. The mainstream media, the universities and the cultural establishment, including most of Hollywood, are the voices of the Cavaliers, whose elites, like many of England's Cavaliers and Charles I's French wife before them, are most concerned with winning over continental opinion and mimicking the European way of life."

Funny guy, isn't he?

But then he really takes off -

As in 17th-century England, where the Roundheads disdained the Cavaliers' embrace of what John Milton called "new-vomited Paganisme," the most obvious divisions between the two groups are contrasting views of moral and religious issues. Our Cavaliers are the secular nation, whose spiritual home is in those places that yearn to join San Francisco at the same-sex-marriage altar. Contemporary Roundheads, like Cromwell's Shakespeare-hating Puritans, possess a fundamentalist sensibility; they seek to stop gay marriage and abortion, and bemoan other manifestations of our secular culture.
And I have to admit, that works out nicely.

He then rings the changes on economic issues and views of the military.

If you click on the link you can read through his detailed analysis. It's clever, but such things have been said before without resorting to belaboring the civil war of the early 1640's in England, the Interregnum that followed, and the Restoration that then followed. Most folks don't care about such things. And Charles the Second returning didn't really fix things. James the Second after him was a flaming queen (in today's parlance) and only when the Scots and Bonnie Prince Charlie got smashed down at Culloden were matters settled. As you recall, in 1745, James's grandson, known as the "Young Pretender" or "Bonnie Prince Charlie", landed in the Hebrides and gathered supporters from all over the Scottish highlands. They entered Edinburgh and began to threaten England. The Duke of Cumberland, son of King George II, led an English army against Bonnie Prince Charlie at Culloden, near Inverness, in April 1746. This was the last battle concerning this business to be fought on British soil. Bonnie Prince Charlie managed to escape, even though a reward of ?30,000 was placed on his head. He went into exile in France and finally died forty years later, sorting of drinking himself to death.

Surely we are not going to repeat all this?

Yes, it seems true that we do not get along well. And this Pepperdine fellow actually does suggest we really don't have to go through all the rigmarole that the British went through.

What should we do to not repeat such history? He suggests "the best thing would be for the political, university and media classes to begin reestablishing a civil dialogue and the kind of politics where debate and tolerance for opposing views are respected. America's strength has been an ability to adapt to changing conditions as a result of such open discussion."

Oh, that sounds so nice. If only it were possible. I think we're past that now.

And anyway, he has his history wrong. He says "gradually, civility and a rational balance were restored to the political system, with results that turned England into the world's most important country and mother to this one. Back in 1688, the English called this return to common sense their Glorious Revolution. May we look forward to our own."

Wait. The Glorious Revolution of 1688, sometimes called the "bloodless revolution" (as all the fighting was done in Ireland, which doesn't count I guess) - brought in William and Mary from Orange in the Netherlands to rule England. Well, good enough - at least they we're Catholics. And the main battle of this Glorious Revolution, at the Boyne River near Belfast, with the Catholics against the Protestants, is still being fought this weekend. That never really ended, did it? As what of the rulers who followed? There was the dull and rather stupid Queen Anne, then the imported German kings who followed her, the first of whom didn't even speak English. One odd George followed the next until the last quite mad George, who is said to have quite often stopped his carriage to step out and chat with a tree he'd noticed, and he lost the colonies over here. Careless fellow.

History can be seen lots of ways. Joel here is clever. But this is silly stuff.

Posted by Alan at 14:54 PST | Post Comment | Permalink
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Tuesday, 23 March 2004

Topic: Political Theory

The Meme of the Month.
If Descartes were alive today these neoconservative guys would kick that evil French fellow in the shins and beat the snot out of him, in moral outrage, or just for the fun of it.


In the magazine Sunday I had that item on logic - The Limitations of Empiricism in Politics with the subheading "Try this little investigation of how the need of those in power to maintain their power trumps this empiricism business." That's here.

What I was getting at was simple. Building on an item by Tim Noah in Slate the current anti-empiricist line of attacking problems became clear to me.

Someone studies something and their conclusion suggests your war may be whole lot more expensive and messy than you'd like? You don't want to know. It would be unpatriotic to know such things, or at least it would be so negative to think that way. A positive attitude works wonders? Maybe. The second example was what if someone has financial facts that would mean you'd lose the vote because the damned Medicare bill is too expensive? Let that someone know if any member of congress asks him for the numbers, and he tells them the truth, he'll get fired. The third example, the EPA one, was what if the proposed regulation of something toxic might cost your political contributors a bundle? Make sure the science isn't done - forbid any studies on the matter. All this happened with the current administration.

Their implicit position? Facts? Who needs them? Ignore them as "defeatist." Or make sure they never get out. Or make sure they're never developed at all.

And I commented that although I've always been kind of fond of empiricism it is clear that I am living in the wrong century.

So Tim Noah got me revved up. And he seems to have started a meme.

A meme? You will find the term defined at Tech Target:

A meme is an idea that is passed on from one human generation to another. It's the cultural equivalent of a gene, the basic element of biological inheritance. The term was coined in 1976 by Richard Dawkins in his book The Selfish Gene. Dawkins speculated that human beings have an adaptive mechanism that other species don't have. In addition to genetic inheritance with its possibilities and limitations, humans, said Dawkins, can pass their ideas from one generation to the next, allowing them to surmount challenges more flexibly and more quickly than through the longer process of genetic adaptation and selection.

Examples of memes might include the idea of God; the importance of the individual as opposed to group importance; the belief that the environment can to some extent be controlled; or that technologies can create an electronically interconnected world community.

Today, the word is sometimes applied ironically to ideas deemed to be of passing value. Dawkins himself described such short-lived ideas as memes that would have a short life in the meme pool.
Okay, then.

This current meme - that the neoconservative ideologues who control what George Bush thinks, says and does (and are the ones who are really running the country) loathe the Enlightenment tradition of empiricism - seems to be the current "meme of the month." These neoconservative fellows would, if Descartes were alive today, kick that evil French fellow in the shins and beat the snot out of him in moral outrage, or just for the fun of it.

Well, that's the general idea.

It's not just Tim Noah and me. This meme is spreading. To the Washington Post now!

See The Professionals' Revolt
Harold Meyerson, Wednesday, March 24, 2004; Page A21

Meyerson reviews how it seems odd that no one has actually thanked Richard Clarke, whose book Against All Enemies is causing such stir. Well, Clarke bluntly says Bush and his team ignored the real threats to the country and waged a foolish war to take over Iraq for some greater good. Clarke had been doing his Cassandra thing for years, screaming about al Qaida and how they were coming to get us. Well, perhaps he thinks of himself more as some sort of heroic Paul Revere rather than that flaky Cassandra woman. But the problem is, really, he was right.

And no one listened. And they screwed things up. And no one even turned to him and said, "Gosh, Dick, I guess you were right. Thank you for being so on the ball."

Well, that expectation is a ridiculous misreading of how the current crew in power deals with disagreement. Ask the French. Ask Hans Blix.

Anyway, Meyerson does a number on this idea that the guy might be worthy of some acknowledgement - and then launches into the meme of the month:

But Clarke did receive a huge if unspoken acknowledgment on the morning of Sept. 11: National security adviser Condoleezza Rice declined to run the so-called principals meeting in the White House Situation Room, choosing Clarke instead to coordinate the urgent information-gathering and to formulate the security responses to put before the president.
Rice repaired, with Dick Cheney, to the White House basement's bomb shelter. A hijacked plane over Pennsylvania was headed toward Washington, and the rest of the White House evacuated at full sprint - with the exception of Clarke and a handful of security professionals, who remained in the West Wing to continue their work.

But the security professionals who stayed at their station on Sept. 11 soon found they had philosophical differences with the neos in the shelter. They were empiricists: They took in as much information as they could and derived their conclusions on that basis. And, as Clarke and many of his fellow professionals were soon to discover, this has been a tough administration for empiricists.
Ah, Meyerson takes the bait! The meme continues replicating!

Step back a minute and look at who has left this administration or blown the whistle on it, and why. Clarke enumerates a half-dozen counterterrorism staffers, three of whom were with him in the Situation Room on Sept. 11, who left because they felt the White House was placing too much emphasis on the enemy who didn't attack us, Iraq, and far too little on the enemy who did.

But that only begins the list. There's Paul O'Neill, whose recent memoir recounts his ongoing and unavailing battle to get the president to take the skyrocketing deficit seriously. There's Christie Todd Whitman, who appears in O'Neill's memoir recalling her own unsuccessful struggles to get the White House to acknowledge the scientific data on environmental problems. There's Eric Shinseki, the former Army chief of staff, who told Congress that it would take hundreds of thousands of American soldiers to adequately secure postwar Iraq. There's Richard Foster, the Medicare accountant, who was forbidden by his superiors from giving Congress an accurate assessment of the cost of the administration's new program. All but Foster are now gone, and Foster's sole insurance policy is that Republican as well as Democratic members of Congress were burnt by his muzzling.
Yep, that's everyone's list.

Meyerson's point?

In the Bush administration, you're an empiricist at your own peril. Plainly, this has placed any number of conscientious civil servants -- from Foster, who totaled the costs on Medicare, to Clarke, who charted the al Qaeda leads before Sept. 11 -- at risk. In a White House where ideology trumps information time and again, you run the numbers at your own risk. Nothing so attests to the fundamental radicalism of this administration as the disaffection of professionals such as Foster and Clarke, each of whom had served presidents of both parties.
Meyerson's point is that this revolt of the professionals poses one huge problem for the Bush presidency - precisely because "it is not coming from its ideological antagonists."

The meme point here is that the "common indictment that these critics are leveling at the administration is that it is impervious to facts."

Is this playing fast and loose with the basic facts enough to put the election of George Bush to another four-year term in peril? Probably not.

We, as a people, don't much care for facts. What determines the outcome of an election where we give one guy power and send the other guy packing? There's image, and likeability, and that illusive quality of being the right guy to run things because you don't seem any smarter at all than the average fellow.

What did Adlai Steven say when he was about to lose in his last run for the presidency? Someone asked him if it pleased him that the "thinking people of America" were all going to vote for him. His reply was quite honest and straightforward - "No, I'd rather have the majority."

Sigh. Anyway, keep an eye out for this meme. It's amusing.

Posted by Alan at 23:41 PST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Tuesday, 23 March 2004 23:57 PST home

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